By cutting interest rates on Tuesday, some economists believe the Reserve Bank would be taking insurance now rather than leaving it until later.
A move now could pre-empt further bad news globally, Richard Webb reports.
THANK weak retail spending in the run-up to Christmas. Thank subdued underlying price inflation in Australia. But most of all thank the spreading sovereign debt crisis in Europe.
That’s the principal reason why most economists expect the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates again at its December meeting on Tuesday, despite news on Friday night of a German-led drive for fiscal union among the 17 euro-zone members.
Remember too that while another rate cut is potentially good news for those with home mortgages, it is not so good for those with an increasing pile of savings on deposit.
But economists say it is clear the non-mining sector of the Australian economy has been struggling for some time, and with the European crisis already lifting bank funding costs, they argue that Australian interest rates need to be lower, and soon.
Interest rates should be acting in a neutral fashion on the economy, they say, and there are arguments that Australia should even move to a protective stimulus.
While there is much debate as to what the Reserve Bank deems as a neutral setting for rates, the consensus is it is somewhere between 4.0 per cent and 4.5 per cent for the cash rate.




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